Oct 15, 2007

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics ...

Statistics as a subject had evoked extreme passions over the years. Opinion is divided about its usefulness, even its status as a scientific subject - like the singing talents of Cacophonix. Statisticians think that it is a science and useful, while everyone else thinks it is just a lie.


Someone said, "Numbers are like people after all. Torture them enough and they will tell you anything". One George Gallup even seemed to have boasted, "I can prove God Statistically". Here are some statistical highlights why they felt that way.

It is proven that the celebration of birthdays is healthy. Statistics show that those people who celebrate the most birthdays live longer.

According to a recent poll, 51% of all Americans are in the majority.

A statistician can have his head in an oven and his feet in ice, and he will say, "On the average, I feel fine."

Studies have shown that the leading cause of death is life.

39% of unemployed men wear spectacles. 80% of employed men wear spectacles. Work spoils your eye sight.

What do you think ? Here is an article on Statistics by MILES KINGTON in The Observer, 3 November 1986

People who do very unusual jobs: the man who counts the number of people at public gatherings.

You've probably seen his headlines, "Two million flock to see Pope.", "200 arrested as police find ounce of cannabis.", "Britain #3 billion in debt". You probably wondered who was responsible for producing such well rounded-up figures. What you didn't know was that it was all the work of one man, Rounder-Up to the media, John Wheeler. But how is he able to go on turning out such spot-on statistics? How can he be so accurate all the time?

"We can't" admits Wheeler blithely. "Frankly, after the first million we stop counting, and round it up to the next million. I don't know if you've ever counted a papal flock, but, not only do they look a bit the same, they also don't keep still, what with all the bowing and crossing themselves."

"The only way you could do it accurately is by taking an aerial photograph of the crowd and handing it to the computer to work out. But then you'd get a headline saying "1,678,163 [sic] flock to see Pope, not including 35,467 who couldn't see him", and, believe me, nobody wants that sort of headline."

The art of big figures, avers Wheeler, lies in psychology, not statistics. The public like a figure it can admire. It likes millionaires, and million-sellers, and centuries at cricket, so Wheeler's international agency gives them the figures it wants, which involves not only rounding up but rounding down.

Sometimes they do get the figures spot on. "250,000 flock to see Royal two", was one of his recent headlines, and although the 250,000 was a rounded-up figure, the two was quite correct. In his palatial office he sits surrounded by relics of past headlines - a million-year-old fossil, a #500,000 Manet, a photograph of the Sultan of Brunei's #10,000,000 house - but pride of place goes to a pair of shoes framed on the wall.

"Why the shoes? Because they cost me #39.99. They serve as a reminder of mankind's other great urge, to have stupid odd figures. Strange, isn't it? They want mass demos of exactly half a million, but they also want their gramophone records to go round at thirty-three-and-a-third, forty-five and seventy-eight rpm. We have stayed in business by remembering that below a certain level people want oddity. They don't a rocket costing #299 million and 99p, and they don't want a radio costing exactly #50."


Funny, isn't it ? Anyway, to round off the Statistics section, here is a nice conclusion by two statisticians :

Two statisticians were travelling in an airplane from LA to New York. About an hour into the flight, the pilot announced that they had lost an engine, but don't worry, there are three left. However, instead of 5 hours it would take 7 hours to get to New York.

A little later, he announced that a second engine failed, and they still had two left, but it would take 10 hours to get to New York.

Somewhat later, the pilot again came on the intercom and announced that a third engine had died. Never fear, he announced, because the plane could fly on a single engine. However, it would now take 18 hours to get to new York.

At this point, one statistician turned to the other and said, "Gee, I hope we don't lose that last engine, or we'll be up here forever!"


No comments: